Estimating time of hike.

Now this is really subjective, and I know there are many right (and wrong?) answers, but I thought I would ask.

I look at a lot of trails on midatlantichikes.com and localhikes.com just to see where people go in my area. They are rated by difficulty and length. Remember, I haven't taken my first hike on one of these trails yet, so I wonder:

What conditions makes a hike an overnighter? I am sure length is the determining criteria, but also, difficulty, my physical condition, and how much do I want to see and how slow do I want to take it. And there's what time do I start, and time of the year also.

Can anyone give me sort of a break-even idea of what they would consider the factors are to make a hike an "out-and-back" trip or an overnight stay?

This is certainly all about short hikes. But as I start out, I plan to do just day trips. I don't want to find out that I misjudged that 4 mile long Easy-rated hike and now can't make it back in time. Keep in mind that I am a slow walker on Main Street, and plan to do the same on a trail. So just some general insight from experienced hikers who might remember their green days would be most helpful.

BTW, I have my first piece of equipment now, a Kelty Arrowhead 2000 daypack. I feel like a kid on Christmas morning. I have also decided to try the soda-can stove (at home).

I'm sure there are no definite answers here, but I would like to hear experiences about those short daytrips that might not have gone as planned and why they took longer than estimated - just to give me ideas.

Thanks so much for any offerings.

Steve

"What makes a hike an overnighter" - Staying out overnight. Now that may sound like a wiseacre answer, but hiking and backpacking are whatever you make them. Sometimes for trying new gear, I just hike a few hundred yards, step the canonical 200 feet off the trail, and set up for the night. Sometimes I will go very light and do 35 miles as a dayhike (usually only when my friend Richard convinces me to accompany him on one of his "day hikes", and not more than twice a year). Sometimes, like this past weekend, my wife just wants to get out and camp under the stars to relieve the stresses of work (we drove to a trailhead in the Sierra and backpacked to a gorgeous meadow filled with wildflowers, with the reward of a perfectly clear, moonless, dark night sky with a brilliantly glowing Milky Way and a few meteors - no one else for miles around - 4 miles each way).

In winter, I have trekked through the snow on skis or snowshoes a half mile for an overnight camp, sometimes intentionally in a blizzard when I wanted to check some gear, sometimes on a clear calm night just to get out there.

"Overnight" is what you make it. The first rule is "there are no rules". Forget about what other people define as hiking, camping, backpacking, overnights.

It isn't about the gear, either. Sometimes I hike out a short distance (or a long distance) with nothing more than the clothes I am wearing and some cheese and fruit, pick a spot, and lay down on the ground or on a flat, smooth rock and spend the night. Sometimes I just sit or lay there staring at the sky all night. That's an "overnight", too.

After a while, you will figure out your own pace and what you enjoy. And that's the most important factor - what do YOU enjoy. Do not let anyone else dictate to you. Yeah, listen and read what others have done, then pick and choose what works for you. If you enjoy taking photos, take time to do that (take star trail photos on your "overnight", or flowers along the trail, or ...). If you like picking viewpoints to just gaze at the hills and valleys, or watching a stream or river flow, do that (sitting by a stream, listening to its sounds in the dark of the night can be very interesting and enlightening). One of my great experiences is watching sunsets and sunrises - listen to the changing sounds when you do this - you will be surprised by what you hear.

Do your own thing, and post your experiences here. We want to hear, and learn from a new point of view.

I agree with bill it's not about how far you go or how fast you move. Do what you want. as far as finding out how long it takes you start out with a couple of short hikes in the morning. Time your self then take that pace and cut it in half or thirds and use that as your estimate for your pace.

I knew this one wouldn't be understood very well. I just can't express my mind as well as I would like.

Thanks both of you for the kindness.

While I know I can deliberately make a 50 yarder an overnighter, what I wanted to know was what type of things that I can't imagine right now in my inexperienced frame of mind would make that 1 mile trip an overnighter when I thought it would only take a few hours.

Most of the reviews of trails provide an hourly estimate of how long it might take to do. A lot are estimated under 8 hours, but they describe their camp site, so either this estimate describes actual moving-feet time, or maybe they started at 8:30 pm. I don't intend on making my trips a distance race, but then again, if I only plan a day for an estimated 4 hour trip, I may have to make it a race-to-the-finish to get home for work the next day.

The point of my question is "what are these estimates based on, as a rule". (Guess I should have asked that in the first place, huh?). Sorry.

Steve

there is NO rule.

It's recreation - you follow your own set of guidelines.

I often do an over-nighter in my own backyard.

"Book time" is most often estimated as 2 miles per hour, plus half an hour for each 1,000 feet of elevation gain. Of course, individuals are faster or slower, but that's something you just have to get out there and learn about yourself.

Steve, How long it takes to do a hike (or walk to the corner market)depends on several factors-
1. Your level of fitness and what you may be carrying;
2. Difficulty of the terrain (which may not be evident on a simple trail map) including altitude;
3. Weather-average vs. extremely hot or cold; sunshine v. rain, snow or high winds.

Factors that may unexpectedly affect the hike would be all of the above-you may not be as fit as you thought; the trail may be steeper than it looks on paper; the weather may change without much warning.

One way to ensure you don't get caught out is to keep an eye on the time and remember that every hour out is also an hour back. I would want to turn around so that I am not hiking in the dark and would take the ten essentials, even on a day hike, in case I did make a mistake and get lost or find myself in the dark.

Personally, I estimate 10 miles a day. This is anywhere from the Green Mountains of Vermont, to the Sierras in Cali. It's proven pretty reasonable for me...fairly new to backpacking, in reasonable shape. In reality, this ends up being between 3 and 6 hours of hiking for me, depending on packweight, terrain, and weather. If I do much more than this, and plan on a more than overnight hike, I just end up too sore after the first couple of days.

Dayhikes - depending on terrain, I'd max myself out at 20 miles. Assuming not too steep/rocky, and my knees'll hold out.

Book estimates:
These times are meant to approximate an "average" hiker, walking at a pace allowing them to readily sustain conversation. I like to push myself, and I don't think I've ever taken near the time listed. This past weekend the 150 minute hike I was looking to do, I did in 80 - including resting at the peak for 20 minutes to chill, and eat a sandwich.

I'd do this as a start to get an idea of your normal walking pace - Measure a 2 to 3 mile walk w/ your car. Try to make this an area w/o stoplights/whatever...they'll sorta ruin things. Now, walk this distance at a good clip w/ your watch. Check your heartrate/energy level. Do you think you'll be able to maintain that pace going uphill? If not...add 30-50% to your time...either way, you end up w/ an approximation of how fast you move.

Now, just remember to bring a watch when you start to go hiking.

As Tom D said, make sure you always carry the Ten essentials, even on "short" day hikes. As you know, in the area that you will be hiking, small mountain streams can flash flood at a moments notice and turn into raging rivers. If the route that you are taking requires you to cross one of these rivers to make it back to civilization, your day hike may turn into an overnighter.

I read an account of a hiker who was backpacking in the Otter Creek Wilderness area of WV a few years ago. It rained heavily overnight, making Otter Creek impassable. The hiker had to bushwack his way back to civilization, turning what would have been a short hike back to his car into an extended stay. The guy kept his cool, making it back safely, but it could have become deadly if he had panicked.

For my wife and I, about 8 miles a day is enough when backpacking. When day hiking, 15 miles is about our limit. But weather, terrain, and physical condition all play a part in this. There have been days when it was really hot out that I was ready to stop by noon and setup camp. Normally on days like this, we will take a long, extended lunch break, then continue our hike in the evening. We also like to stop alot for breaks, take photos, or drop our packs and explore a side trail. After all, we are out there to have fun. If it starts to feel like work, then you probably won't enjoy yourself and stop going.

Yeah, Steve, I knew what you wanted in your question. But there is a huge problem with the "magic formula" you wanted, or rather, a bunch of problems. These are hinted at in some of the other responses.

As Dave (our leader) said, the canonical rule published everywhere is 2 miles per hour. However, Dave, the canonical altitude adjustment is 1 hour per thousand feet, not a half hour. But, getting back to Steve's question, there are at least a half dozen variations on this magic formula that give you a range of a factor of 2 or more in the time. Some variations account for pack load, some for trail condition.

Here are several things wrong with using such a formula, most already hinted at or explicitly stated:

1. Everyone is different. Some hike faster, others slower. Personal condition (training, today's state of health) varies from day to day. Got a kid or dog with you? Like to smell the flowers or hug a tree or take lots of photos? It all makes a difference.
2. How long do you feel like hiking before making camp? Some people prefer to hike no more than 3 or 4 hours, others will do 10 hours a day, day after day.
3. What is your hiking style? Do you hike continuously for 4 hours before taking a snack/lunch break, or do you take a break every hour or at the top of every steep climb? How long are your breaks - 5 min to catch your breath, 15 min with pack off, mid-day nap?
3. How long does it take you to set up camp? Some people take 5 minutes (especially here in the West, where we often just roll the sleeping bag out on the ground), some take an hour (some tents take a long time to set up, some people search for the exactly perfect bedsite and orientation, some people like a "kitchen").
4. Depends on the load, terrain (good trail, rough trail, crosscountry), weather (hot, humid, raining, snowing, very cold, snow on the trail, etc), and a bunch of other factors.
5. Depends on how complex the route-finding is. Clearly, a good trail for which there is only one choice, or one with which you are familiar, or one which has excellent signage is faster than an obscure trail that you are on for the first time that has lots of branches to spot. I think of one hike I made up the Right Fork that involved a stream crossing at a fork in the trail that was obscure. The "obvious" trail continued up the same side of the stream I was on for a couple miles before making a sharp turn, while the crossing is hard to see, even now that I have done the hike several times. Same with the trail up the Great Gulf - a couple of obscure stream crossings. And same with a backpack we did in the Smokies. The retracing and searching in each case added 30-60 minutes.

Until you know your own style and develop some sense of your own strengths and weaknesses, you can only do a very rough estimate. As several others have already said here, do a bunch of short overnights that are well within what you think are your limits. Keep a journal with the distance, climb, trail condition, and your condition (healthy, sick, tired, very fresh) and pack weight (heavy, light - not the exact pounds).

If you get the idea that I think rigid magic formulas are nonsense, you have the right idea! Hey, and I am a scientist by training who quantifies everything!

I really didn't want the formula, since I would try my best to disprove it. The estimates are fine as you all have provided.

Thank you all for the time.

My original question and replies made this appear as though I wanted to break some distance record or something. What I really want to do is just get out and take some pictures and see the sights. Nature really amazes me with all that it provides, so I really -really- want to take my time. If I don't finish a trail, I'll come back another time and finish it or make a little more progress (maybe not).

I was mostly worried about what makes trips extend themselves beyond the planned estimates I make for myself once I establish a guideline for any trip. As a rookie, I wouldn't have run into these problems, so I can't plan for them. Most problems happen because one hasn't planned for them, but you need to know a little something about type of problems.

Again, thanks for the info. I'm taking it all in, and hope I can remember it.

Steve

Steve -

Maybe what you are asking is what can go wrong with a trip to turn a day hike into an overnight epic? There are so many possibilities, most of which are disasters, that it is hard to say. The simplest are late starts, spending too much time on viewing the sights, taking a wrong turn, spending too much time chatting with others on the trail. Weather changes are another major delay cause, as are landslides, ... And on and on and on.

My advice, and that of others who have posted, is do some basic planning and preparation. That's what the "10 Essentials" are for.

And mostly, don't worry so much. Start easy, and have fun.

To paraphrase one of our fearless leaders in Washington who said this a while back-there are the things we know, there are the things we know we don't know and there are the things we don't know we don't know.

Most likely, it's the things we don't know we don't know that turn a day hike into an overnighter. Best example I can think of-if you know you don't know if the weather could turn suddenly, you most likely won't go all that far so that if it does, you aren't that far from shelter; However, if you don't know that you don't know-in other words, you don't even think about it-sure enough, you can get in big trouble. I can think of a number of examples I have read about-none of which had happy endings-but I will spare you the details.

Bill S said:

Quote:

As Dave (our leader) said, the canonical rule published everywhere is 2 miles per hour. However, Dave, the canonical altitude adjustment is 1 hour per thousand feet, not a half hour.

In New England half an hour per 1,000 feet is the frequently-referenced standard published in the canonical AMC White Mountain Guide and other AMC guidebooks.

Maybe all those switchbacks you westerners are so fond of just add to your climbing time? ;-)

BTW, I object to being called "leader." (What would the Martians think!?!?) How about "host"?

How about "Den Mother"?