2:18 a.m. on May 10, 2009 (EDT)
Gentlemen, gentlemen, it looks like you've gotten your hackles raised over the wrong thing again.
Yes, Bill, mere experiential reports, when very small in number, are still in nature essentially anecdotal, regardless of who is doing the reporting. Any decent scientist knows this, and so refrains from drawing conclusions based upon it unless forced to do so.
I've looked at innumerable articles, web sites, videos, and so forth by park rangers, various wildlife scientists, and the like, and the methodological holes in them, from a scientific perspective, are huge. I've spoken with rangers and assorted others in parks, forests, and wilderness areas ranging across the country, although I've not visited the ever-hallowed Yosemite, I must admit. And I've camped, hiked, backpacked, ridden, fished, and just sat around sunning myself in lots of different places, including territory inhabited by black and/or grizzly bears. I've encountered bears near and far, though, thankfully, never too near.
I made it abundantly clear that I wasn't contesting conclusions, so unsolicited advice that perhaps I should just listen to someone with more experience is, frankly, unhelpful at best. I've listened, both here and elsewhere, and now I'm asking for data and systematic analysis thereof. A mere listing of a few incidents accompanied by a statement that investigations found that bears were attracted to X, Y, or Z is not really anything more than someone telling me that I should listen to them because they've got more experience, or they've spoken to someone with more experience, or what have you. That's a paternalistic approach often taken by people who don't actually have the data and/or appropriate analysis to back up their claims.
Now, that said, I've been rather explicit in saying that I am not trying to challenge conclusions; frankly, I don't give a rat's patootie what anyone's conclusions are--I'm interested in seeing the data, what kind of data it is, how it was accumulated, under what conditions, etc.
Bill, your comments about what kind of science and methodology I might be looking for seem to me sarcastic, unhelpful and unkind. I hope they weren't intended that way.
Dewey, your comments seem to suggest that you think I'm trying to contest what you've had to say--again, I'll point out that, prolix prose or not, none of what I've said has actually done so--I only asked, really, how it is we know what we think we know. If you are confident in what you know, that question should not bother you or anyone else. That it does, or seems to, I'm sorry about, and I'm willing to listen to suggestions about how better to ask if anyone has any actual data on the subject--which, if you'll look at the original post, was what I was after from the beginning.
Trouthunter provided the only useful response, giving a link to the online presence (such as it currently is) for the journal Ursus. At that site, they've got several volumes of their journal archived, though not all. I've visited the site before, and looked through each title thereon, and downloaded the PDF, where available, of more than a dozen articles that I thought might have useful data on the topic, and I found nothing of substance on the particular question. A quick look at it this evening shows that nothing has been added since my last visit, as far as I can tell. But thanks for the effort, TH.
But to the point, far and away the most frequent mention of a particular item as a bear attractant was food and food remains. Herrero in more than one instance estimated that 90% or more of attacks not associated with female/cub encounters were associated with food, if I recall correctly. He also mentioned in at least one report that neither female menstruation nor use of cosmetics seemed to have any effect on the likelihood of bear-human interactions, based on the materials he reviewed.
In another of the studies, one looking at black bear behavior, Bacon noted that "everyone has stories, but no one has...data". Interesting, that.
Again, gentlemen, I wasn't asking for recommendations about whether to use deodorant or not--I was asking if anyone had or knew of any data on the topic. Instead, it seems I'm finding people getting huffy because they think I'm ignoring their sage advice. I didn't ask if the local constabulary had reports of bears preferentially selecting cabins where they could see refrigerators through the window, but it's mentioned as if it were relevant. I didn't ask for recommendations about how to travel in bear country. Lots of that around, easy to find, etc.
Nope, gentlemen, I asked if anyone has or knows of any decent data, preferably accompanied by meaningful systematic analysis, on the subject. If you don't have it or know where I can lay hands on it, that's fine. No harm done. But please don't chastise me for seeming to ignore unsolicited advice proffered in what I'm sure was a well-intended but misguided effort to help.
If I ask if anyone happens to know how many times in his career George Brett got a hit with two strikes and I'm told that Brett was a really good hitter, I've not learned anything, and most specifically, I haven't learned whether Brett might have been lots better than average when swinging with two strikes. Even if it's Goose Gossage telling me he's a great hitter.