SoCal long range forecast

6:07 p.m. on October 29, 2009 (EDT)
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Anyone know a good source for a long range forecast for the San Gabriel Mountains (SoCal)? I know such forecasts are not all that reliable, but I am hoping to find some indicators of whether or not there will be snow this winter. I don't mean around Mammoth, it always has snow. I'm talking further south, like Mt. Baldy. which had great snow two years ago and almost none last year.

4:39 p.m. on October 30, 2009 (EDT)
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Mt Baldy (San Antonio) has almost always had snow sometime in the winter as does most elevations over 5,000'. Some sticks some don't. I can't remember a year some didn't hang out for a period of time in Baldy bowl. It may have only been good on Wednesday, though.

I've looked across from Wilson and seen patches of snow hanging out in June as well. Granted it was a wet winter.

It gets some wonderfully beautiful and adventurous ice storms. December 6th a few years ago had a patina of clear ice about 3 inches thick from about the last 300 feet or so. Looking down at the fallen sign, was like looking down through an ice covered pond. Sitting curled up would allow the wind to blow you around like a skittle ball. There were no sharp rocks -- just ice flow. There was some wonderful ice down-climbing to and past the 'Backbone'. With out crampons and ax, you would still be going 30 mph as you passed through Wrightwood :)

Baldy Village is a good place to get 'snowed' in once in awhile. Good bar, hamburgers and fireplace.

I think your best performing indicator will be the condition of the Nino in the southern Pacific (supposedly good this year for accumulated snow) and the intensity of the NWP (North West Pattern). Other than that it is up to using the Ol' Farmer's Almanac. Over a long period it has done pretty good. It is not the most useful tool for planning a weekend tho.

The last forecast I heard mentioned based on the long term records, is a continuation of the northern CA drought pattern that has been plaguing the area for the last decade. But that doesn't translate to anything for us unless any possible weather is blown south by the jet stream.

But then on the other hand... (wetter and warmer winter in lower S/W)
http://www.longrangeweather.com/Weather-Forecasts.htm#

Although NOAA doesn't go out a limb often, it is a good prognosticator of the near future and is a good place to get a quick look before heading out.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sgx/

Most snow in the South Land is one of those 'you have to be there' opportunities as soon after they open the road.

There is other fun up on Angeles Crest Hiway during the southern California 'ski' season. It seems that it has snow when no where else does. Maybe why they had a ski lift put in there, before artificial snow.

http://www.topo.com/explore?lat=34.349029721256244&lng=-117.90789794921875&level=6&type=topo

You are right about Mammoth. That place has some of the consistently worst weather on the globe.

7:43 p.m. on October 30, 2009 (EDT)
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Maybe we norwegians can help. This site http://www.yr.no/place/Canada/British_Columbia/Baldy_Mountain/

has forecasts for over a week. Just toggle the buttons to find out more. Yr.no has become very popular in whole Scandinavia, but they have millions of places in the whole world as well.

10:07 p.m. on October 30, 2009 (EDT)
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I too, keep forgetting this is an international forum. This 'baldy' is in Southern California, USA. The hill's real name is Mt San Antonio. I suspect many US states that have something sticking out of the grass has, at least locally, named one of them 'baldy'.

After reading my reply, I didn't help by giving it much of a hint of where it was located (at near the end, adroitly stuck a not-in-context hint) except CA=Canada (could be Calif. too), and further flummoxed it with Northwest Pattern and Pacific Ocean.

That one in BC Canada has some really lousy weather too. I'll make the long term winter forecast for it as: over cast skies and lots of snow on the ground.

11:08 p.m. on November 1, 2009 (EST)
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Different Baldy, Otto. This one is in Southern California. How is the weather up your way?

Speacock, I think I know that place. There is a restaurant on the right side of the road as you go up the hill, small parking lot out front, decent food, might be that one.

The reason I asked is that a friend of mine and I buy really cheap lift tickets at Skidazzle for Baldy. Can't beat $10, good anytime. Even if we only get up there once, we buy 5 each and are still ahead of the game by a couple of bucks.

11:55 p.m. on November 1, 2009 (EST)
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Tom I looked around a bit, was interested as well. I did find a site that gave a chart for expected groups of dry and wet days for each region based on long range weather patterns. Don't know if that would be any help for you . If so let me know and I'll find it again and post a link.

I hope you get some days that work for you!

8:32 p.m. on November 2, 2009 (EST)
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Ahhh, skiing. I think Baldy is on the "ski-board". They of course do mostly artificial so that they can extend their ski season all the way through Thursday. :)

That board won't be active until the SEASON. I'll try to dig it up and post it here. It gives the week's forecast and current for many in California that have possibilities including sporadic rope tows...mostly private - those.

You do use somebody elses boards when there don't you? I have a pair of old 1950 era Heads that have been generally indestructible for those kinds of weeds, sticks and rocks. I get a lot of ooos and ahhhs when I have them strapped on with well oiled leathers. Sort of like driving an old MG/TD through UCLA with the rag top down.

And tweeds.

The ski lift runs year 'round. I don't know if they were actively skiing last year during winter. I chatted with them a few years ago and they were on hard times. The trail equipment didn't look like it had been used much. Next time I'm near I'll ask around. The ranger should know, tho.

And yes, on the right, across from the ranger station, for the burgers. The fries were so good when I was there last, I would guess they were still making them with lard. I could definitely hear my small capillaries slam shut on the way out the door.

Almost as good as whatzhernames place in Lee Vining.

9:28 p.m. on November 2, 2009 (EST)
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OK soryy 'bout that, here it is then http://www.yr.no/sted/USA/California/Mount_Baldy/

Tom the weather by us now is like this http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Nordland/Bod%c3%b8/St%c3%b8ver/ for the time of the year it is quite normal, but september and october were rainy and cold. Hoping for a better weater some weeks now.

Btw if you write "baldy" in the searchfield, it gives you a lot of alternatives, over 400 just in USA. Just pick your baldy and enjoy.

10:58 p.m. on November 2, 2009 (EST)
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Speacock, I love Baldy, much more fun that Big Bear or Snow Summit and they do have good snow much of the winter. Great place to go midweek. I can get there from Santa Monica and be skiing in about 2 hours. They just added some new snow making capability. They've had good snow the past couple of years as I recall. They are actually higher than Big Bear.

It is old school, low key skiing. Nothing fancy, but really nice people and not crowded.

4:33 p.m. on November 15, 2009 (EST)
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Here is a CraigList on Baldy lift tickets

$25 no black out.

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/lac/tix/1457526464.html

9:02 p.m. on November 16, 2009 (EST)
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I bet those are tickets someone bought at SkiDazzle. I got mine for $10. Still a bargain at less than half price.

Hi Otto, it is warmer in Norway than I thought it would be. Thanks for the links.

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